[ROVERNET - UK] No messages

[Paul Smith]

Peak Oil means peak production capacity, mainly for ground-removal.
There is roughly as much in the ground as has been used over the last 30
years.
Yes refining capacity is down.

It is inevitable that the price rises, and sharply.  As one who works with
the National Electricity Market here, I know that as soon as there is a
shortfall the price rockets.
The same will happen with oil.  We haven't arrived at the spike yet!
Asian demand will continue to grow.  Most fields are now declining in their
extraction rates, so once the minimum demand curve crosses the supply curve,
the price jumps.  There will be nothing oil companies can do about it.
The US has plans to make oil from shale, but it isn't proven.

PVS


-----Original Message-----
From: Gavin.Walker at csiro.au [mailto:Gavin.Walker at csiro.au]
Sent: Thursday, 8 September 2005 2:46 pm
To: rovernet at lyris.ccdata.com
Subject: RE: [ROVERNET - UK] No messages


Whether we have hit peak oil is still debated.  The current prices spike
is due to
  - political instability
  - insufficient oil production capacity (as opposed to insufficient
oil)
  - insufficient petrol refining capacity (i.e. turning oil into petrol)

Whether those that control the production and refining capacities are
willing to pump more money into infrastructure we will have to wait and
see.  Currently they have lots more money at no extra cost.  However due
to peak oil coming up eventually they may diversify rather than put the
profit into more plant.  Immediate price spikes in the US are due to the
Southern petrol refineries being underwater.  Australian prices are set
based on the Singapore price, high Asian demand being a culprit (as well
as following US prices).  As Asian countries get more cars and demand
increases the Singapore price will increase.

I was told once that LPG was a combination of butane and propane, both
from the oil refining process.  Natural gas (CNG) is mostly methane and
ethane.

A disco could pay for itself fairly shortly.  If it uses 20l/100km over
10000km that's 2000l a year.  At 1.5c/l we have $3000.  If LPG saves 40%
costs, there's a saving of $1200 a year.  Looks around a 2 year pay
pack.  LPG excise will come in around 2011 I think, which should put
45c/l LPG up to around  70c/l (sliding eventually up to around $1/l and
probably put a lot of LPG fitters out of business).  Unfortunately LPG
equipment is largely incompatible with CNG if that eventually takes off.

Of course if there's a change of government in the middle anything could
happen.

Gavin Walker
Canberra, Australia

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